Fewer Pupils, Tighter Budgets: How Falling Birth Rates Are Reshaping Schools
Introduction
Classrooms are beginning to feel emptier — not because of attendance issues, but because of something much deeper and more systemic: the country's falling birth rate. This quiet demographic shift is now having very real consequences for schools, particularly when it comes to funding.
A Nation with fewer Children
The UK has seen a steady decline in birth rates over the past decade. According to the Office for National Statistics:
2018: 657,076 live births
2019: 640,370
2020: 615,557
2021: 624,828
2022: 605,479
2023: 591,072 (lowest since 1977)
In terms of the total fertility rate, the average number of children a woman is expected to have:
2018: 1.70
2023: 1.49
2024: 1.44 – the lowest on record since they began in the 1930’s and well below the replacement rate of 2.1
This is not merely a passing trend — it represents a significant structural change, and it is currently working its way through various aspects of the education system.
How School Funding is being hit
Per Pupil Funding Drops
Schools are funded primarily on a per-pupil basis. Fewer children mean less funding — even though the school's overheads (staff, utilities, buildings) stay the same. This makes budgeting extremely difficult and we have found that schools are already responding by:
Reducing teaching assistant numbers
Combining year groups
Scaling back on enrichment activities
Deferring building maintenance
Facing the threat of closure or amalgamation
Why this Matters….
We’ve seen this year with forecasted child numbers that two form entry primary schools (420 pupils) are having to, or planning to change to single form entry (210 pupils).
For this transition DFC funding reduces by over £2,300, at a basic rate, a 27% drop, however the building and it’s statutory requirements for servicing and maintenance stay the same making compliance almost impossible.
This significantly impacts the school’s ability to:
Replace aging infrastructure (e.g. windows, roofs & boilers)
Invest in energy efficiency (e.g. LED lighting, insulation)
Maintain safe, compliant buildings
This funding decline due to pupil numbers, coupled with inflation in construction and maintenance costs, means schools and the government must plan strategically and act early to ensure their estates remain fit for purpose in an already underfunded and crumbling estate.
So What Can Schools Do?
While demographics can’t be changed overnight, there are ways for schools to adapt creatively:
1. Collaborate, Don’t Compete
Forming strategic partnerships, trusts, or federations enables schools to collaborate effectively by sharing leadership responsibilities and back-office functions. This collaborative approach not only enhances their operational efficiency but also contributes to greater financial resilience in the long term.
2. Reimagine Your Space
Underused classrooms can be effectively repurposed for a variety of important functions, such as early years education or special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) provision, community learning initiatives, as well as health and wellbeing services. This approach not only builds relevance within the community but also has the potential to foster a sense of connection and support.
3. Build a Strong Identity
Schools have the opportunity to stand out by becoming known for something unique and distinctive, such as forest school programs, excellence in the arts, innovation as tech hubs, or a commitment to inclusive education. A strong and recognisable brand, alongside a clear purpose, can significantly influence parental choice, even in regions where enrolment numbers are experiencing a decline.
4. Rethink the Funding Model (the big one!)
There is a growing and mounting pressure for comprehensive government reform. Some school leaders are actively calling for the establishment of a baseline funding guarantee. This is essentially a minimum amount intended to protect schools from sudden and unpredictable drops in funding. Perhaps financing that more accurately reflects fixed costs, rather than relying solely on headcounts would be more beneficial as not all schools are the same size, age or type which has a big impact on the cost of upkeep.
Conclusion - A time for transition
The fall in pupil numbers is not temporary. It reflects a generational shift in how families live, work, and plan for the future. But change also brings opportunity.
The current funding structure for schools emphasizes per pupil allocation, which can lead to inequities, particularly for smaller schools which may well become more common over the foreseeable future. Schools frequently face unique challenges related to their size and the demographics they serve. A more targeted approach, based on the size and type of building, could well address these disparities more effectively.
Smaller schools in terms of pupil numbers, are the future, whether we like it or not, but when appropriately funded, can offer advantages such as smaller class sizes and more individualized attention for students. This creates an environment conducive to learning, fostering stronger relationships between teachers and students and enhancing community involvement.
However, without adequate funding, the quality of education in smaller schools may well diminish. Policymakers must recognise that a reduction in student numbers does not directly correlate with a reduction in learning needs. Educational standards should not be sacrificed merely to accommodate funding shortfalls. Instead, a more nuanced funding model that considers the specific needs and circumstances of different schools is necessary.
This might mean funding that prioritises resources for specialised programs, additional staffing, and support services tailored to their community's needs. By focusing on the unique attributes of each school, policymakers can ensure that all students receive the quality education they deserve, regardless of the size of their institution.
Now is undeniably the time for bold and innovative thinking and a rethink on how school’s core funding is provided. The fact that there are fewer children in our society does not and should not, have to translate into a situation that there is less funding simply based on the principal that pounds equals bums on seats.